The new Middle East scheme returns with Trump’s return, what about Lebanon?
The new Middle East scheme
The new Middle East plan – given regional political developments and the return of Donald Trump to the political scene,
Indicators are strengthened on the return of the “new Middle East scheme” to the forefront,
Especially with the recent American moves in the region, which carry clear imprints to reformulate geopolitical, economic and military balances.
The scheme, which was presented in its first term, returns today with a new and bolder solution.
In light of global changes and the decline in the roles of some regional powers.
The new Middle East scheme returns with Trump’s return, what about Lebanon?
A comprehensive regional plan to sign Trump
Recent US moves indicate the revival of the “Great Settlement” project, which began to be launched during Trump’s first state.
This plan includes the re -drawing of regional alliances in light of a wider normalization with Israel,
In exchange for providing significant military and economic support to the Gulf states, in particular Saudi Arabia,
Which lives in the stage of internal restructuring and a wide economic modernization within the framework of Vision 2030.
Trump’s upcoming visit to the region, which includes Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar,
It comes within the framework of putting the finishing touches on a “political and security package” that includes the containment of Iran,
Reducing the influence of its arms in the region, and progressing in the path of Arab -Israeli normalization, in exchange for clear security guarantees from the United States.
Israel and normalization against the Iranian nuclear
According to diplomatic leaks, Trump is currently working on drafting a “Mohsen” nuclear agreement with Iran,
It maintains some penalties while providing conditional facilities.
On the other hand, Tehran is asked to concessions related to its missile program and its regional role, especially in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is an essential part of this plan, but on clear conditions from the Saudi side,
Including submitting American obligations to a two -state solution, and security guarantees equivalent to those provided by Washington to Tel Aviv.
What constitutes increasing pressure on the Israeli government, especially with the presence of an extremist right that rejects any concession to the Palestinians.
What about Lebanon in the new Middle East scheme?
Lebanon Not far from this equation, it is one of the first to be affected.
Once the American -Iranian settlement succeeded,
A lot will change in the Lebanese interior. Among the most prominent effects:
- Hezbollah fileOne of the most prominent topics on the table. The United States sees in the party an extension of Iranian influence in the region, and any agreement with Tehran will not pass without controlling this influence. This means either limiting the party’s role to the internal political framework or pushing it towards gradually dismantling its military wing.
- Drawing the borders with SyriaThe suspended file for decades began to move, especially after Lebanon received accurate French maps that return to the mandate era.
Washington appears to be pushing for a comprehensive settlement, including the demarcation of the border with both Syria and Israel,
Perhaps the case of the Shebaa Farms was resolved within this framework. - Palestinian and Syrian refugees: This issue is a candidate for escalation, especially if it is agreed on a final solution to the Palestinian issue that includes partial localization in some countries, including Lebanon,
What threatens the Lebanese demographic balance and increases internal pressure. - The economic and financial file: That is, a regional breakthrough that will reflect positively on the deteriorating economic situation in Lebanon,
Especially if it includes direct financial support from the Gulf, and American investments in infrastructure and energy.
The Lebanese reality is in front of a crossroads In the event that the new Middle East scheme is applied
In light of this scenario, Lebanon stands at a real crossroads:
Either it is integrated into the new regional settlement, through political and administrative reforms and modernizing its constitutional structure in line with the new balances.
Either it remains hostage to the internal division and external bets, which leaves it vulnerable to more collapses.
It cannot be ignored that the presidential elections file in Lebanon may be linked to these regional data.
The choice of the next president may be based on external -internal consensus that is appropriate for the next stage,
It may be a consensual figure that is not provocative for any of the axes, and has the ability to manage complex balances.
Lebanon and the last opportunity
These transformations, if their best investment, may be a historical opportunity for Lebanon to get out of the state of political paralysis and economic collapse.
The American -Iranian settlement, if reached, will neutralize regional mines through the Lebanese state,
It opens the way to restoring sovereignty, activating the role of institutions, and engaging in reconstruction and development projects.
But all of this is conditional on the ability of the Lebanese interior to interact positively with these changes,
And abandon the logic of the axes, and work on a unified national strategy that places the Lebanese interest above all considerations.
Capricorn Middle East schemeD, is it implemented?
Trump’s return to the political scene is not just a change in the level of the American leadership,
Rather, it is a reference to a new stage of external policies, the most impulsive and focused on decisiveness.
And Lebanon, like other countries of the region, is called to read the scene well and capture opportunities before it is too late.
In light of the intense conflicts and major transformations, the time of major settlements appears to have returned.
Does Lebanon benefit from this historical transformation, or will it remain a victim of the intersection of the axes?
