Lifting sanctions on Syria !! Where is the Syrian economy?

Lebanon today lifted sanctions on Syria in a historical step described as dramatic, US President Donald Trump announced during the Saudi -American Investment Forum in Riyadh to lift the economic sanctions imposed on Syria, which sparked a state of anticipation and optimism in both political and economic circles. This step represents a decisive turn in Syria’s march towards economic recovery and rebuilding its affected institutions, amid expectations to open new markets to the flow of basic commodities that the Syrian people missed for a long time. Huge economic losses due to the sanctions, the losses that were affected by the Syrian economy since the beginning of the crisis in 2011 are estimated at more than 530 billion dollars, and the US sanctions, especially the Caesar Law, were one of the main factors that led to this collapse. Oil production decreased by 90%, as production before the sanctions exceeded 380 thousand barrels per day, while today does not exceed 20 to 30 thousand barrels only. The sanctions also led to the collapse of the Syrian currency on the black market, as the exchange rate of one dollar reached more than 15,000 pounds in some periods, accompanied by inflation rates exceeding 130%. Thousands of factories and workshops were closed due to the difficulty of importing raw materials and technology, which resulted in stopping more than 70% of small and medium factories, according to the Damascus Chamber. The social and service impact of the sanctions was not limited to the economic side only, but also extended to the health and service infrastructure that witnessed a sharp collapse. With the Caesar Law, basic supplies such as fuel, medicines, and building materials were cut off, which led to the high prices of medicines by more than 300% in some areas, which increased the suffering of citizens in light of the lack of medical services. Opportunities for reconstruction and development after the lifting of the sanctions on Syria, political economy adviser, Dr. Osama Al -Qadi, sees that the lifting of sanctions represents a departure from the “economic coma” that the Syrian economy lived for more than four decades. The judge stressed that the return of Syria to the international community and the Arab cuddling, and the lifting of the sanctions he described as “unjust”, will give the country new opportunities for the economic advancement. The judge pointed out the importance of attracting major international companies such as “Total” and “Shell” to rehabilitate the Syrian energy sector, which is destroyed by sanctions and war. He pointed out that the presence of American companies began to press to return to the Syrian market, which promises a new period of foreign investment. The political context and the importance of stability after the lifting of the sanctions on Syria on his part, Dr. Shaher Al -Shaher, a professor of international studies from Damascus, pointed out that the lifting of sanctions is the right to restore the Syrian people, stressing that the sanctions were not justified and that they targeted the Syrian people and not only the regime. He considered that the sanctions united the Syrian people, and made him realize that they are targeting his life and ways to live. He added that the positive dealing with the current US administration may be useful, especially since Trump is seeking to restore the position of the United States in the Middle East, considering Syria as a major player in the stability of the region, and referring to development projects that require a stable environment in Syria. Technical and financial challenges stressed that the political will play the most important role in lifting the sanctions, and that it precedes legal procedures and legislation, citing previous experiences during the Trump era. He also pointed to the necessity of returning Syria to the “Swift” system for global financial transfers, which will facilitate the entry of investments and financial transfer operations, and helps the stability of the exchange rate of the Syrian pound. In light of the return of the Syrian expatriates, the judge stressed the importance of issuing a new group of currency (5,000 pounds) to provide sufficient liquidity, which facilitates the economic movement and reduces inflation. Future expectations for the Syrian economy despite the great opportunities provided by the lifting of sanctions, but the challenges are still ongoing. Syria needs extensive political and economic support to rebuild the infrastructure and update the vital sectors. The economy also needs to motivate the private sector and restart factories and companies that have stopped working due to the years of sanctions and war. The return of foreign investments and the opening of markets to basic goods will contribute to improving living levels, and creating new job opportunities that are important to a wide segment of young people who have suffered from high unemployment rates during the past years. Lifting sanctions on Syria !! What next? Lifting US sanctions on Syria represents an important turning point in the country’s economic and political history, and is a golden opportunity to rebuild and economic advancement. But success in this path depends mainly on political stability, good resource management, and attracting investments, in addition to the cooperation of the international community and the Arab countries. In the next stage, the economic and political circles will follow up with caution of the implementation steps, while monitoring the impact of raising sanctions on the daily life of the Syrian citizen, and the extent of achieving the desired economic recovery after years of challenges.

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