What is Trump’s surprise for the Middle East?

Political and diplomatic circles in the Middle East are witnessing wide anticipation of what the former US president and current presidential candidate Donald Trump described as “a very important declaration”, which is expected to be launched before the start of his tour in the region, which includes visits to Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, without so far includes a station in Israel. A mysterious and many speculation in brief statements, Trump hinted that the would be “very positive”, without providing any details of its resentment, saying only that it may be issued on Thursday, Friday or Monday. This ambiguity feeds a series of speculation in political and media circles about the content of the upcoming advertising. Analysis has varied between those who suggested that the matter be related to the joining of new Arab countries to the “Ibrahimi Peace” agreements, and whoever believes that Trump is planning to launch a package of economic aid directly to the Gaza Strip, or that he reached an understanding with Iran regarding its regional influence. There are those who indicated the possibility that the US administration will formally adopt the nomination of the “Arab Gulf” instead of “Persian” in official policies. Skaf: Trump is devoted to the end of Iran’s project in the region in this context, the Lebanese MP Ghassan Skaf said in an interview with “Al -Central” that what Trump is doing now carries a strategic dimension that goes beyond the transient declaration, considering that Trump comes to the region with a “victory of victory”, after a series of field and political developments that led to the decline of Iran’s influence and arms in the region. Skaf explains: “We are facing a scene that is devoted to the end of the Iranian project in the Middle East. From Hamas in Gaza, to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the fall of the regime in Syria, then the popular crowd in Iraq, and finally the surrender of the Houthis in Yemen … all these indicators confirm that the Iranian hand has become weaker than ever.” America does not seek to eliminate Iran, but to limit it, according to Skaf. Washington, whether during the era of Trump or others, was not aimed at eliminating Iran, but rather to limit its regional influence and remove its military arms. “The United States does not want Hezbollah completely outside the equation, but rather it wants as a political entity without a weapon, and the same applies to the popular crowd and the Houthis … The required is to weaken the military power that threatens the security of the region, not removing these entities from the scene,” Skaf says. A possible normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel is one of the most prominent things that the Trump tour of the region may carry, according to Skaf, is the start of serious consultations towards normalizing relations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Israel. In his opinion, this visit is the preliminary stage of an expected series of talks that may be arduous, but it carries signs of a new strategic shift in the region. He adds: “There is a new political climate that may be built on to achieve unprecedented Arab -Israeli understandings, and Trump knows how to invest this circumstance and transform it into a huge diplomatic achievement if he was re -elected as president in 2025.” Hezbollah’s file and withdrawal of weapons: a complex task on what is said about American pressure to hand over Hezbollah’s weapon, especially after the recent visit of the American envoy Morgan Ortigos, which advised the Lebanese to accelerate the implementation of American requirements “before Trump’s patience was depleted”, Skaf considered that this file is thorny and will not be easily resolved. He explained: “I do not think that the delivery of the weapon will be so quickly that the Americans want. There are many complications, and the discussions will require guarantees and conditions. The question here is: Is this weapon back to Iran or Hezbollah?” If the weapon is Iranian, Skaf believes that the file should be included in the American -Iranian negotiations, especially in the fourth round of the talks to be held next Saturday. But if the weapon is in the hands of Hezbollah alone, the issue becomes Lebanese and is supposed to be managed by the Lebanese themselves, under official sponsorship and within internal negotiations. Trump’s surprise … Where do things go? In light of these indicators, Trump’s expected surprise remains a monitor. Will it be an announcement of the “end of the Iranian project” really? Or a new step towards Saudi -Israeli normalization? Or is it just a new electoral offer in which Trump invests separate victories to draft a strong political speech before the elections? The answer remains pending until Trump release his surprise, but what is certain is that the Middle East stands at the gates of a new stage, its features will be drawn through alliances that crystallize, and the ceilings that are intended to drop.

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