The last numbers about the destruction of the Lebanon war … a big surprise documented!

The “Safar” platform, which specializes in economic studies, published a new report in which it talked about the percentage of affected housing in Lebanon as a result of the recent Israeli war, referring to the disparity in the percentage of numbers associated with it.

The report said that until now the Lebanese state has not made a comprehensive survey of the damages caused by the Israeli war on Lebanon, and the estimates of the World Bank were relied on in the report of “the rapid assessment of damage and needs in Lebanon for the year 2025”, and added: “However, the information that was collected with the Jihad Al -Bunah Foundation, due to the surveying and inspection operations conducted by Hezbollah teams, reveals a great disparity in estimating the number of housing units Destroyed and affected. While the World Bank estimates it at about 162,900 units, the Jihad Al -Bina Foundation estimates it with more than 348,028 units, or a difference of 185,128 units, which is an unacceptable statistically acceptable difference.

The World Bank indicates that there are 1.65 million housing units in Lebanon in the year 2024, and this means that the Israeli war caused damage in 10% of the residential stock in Lebanon, according to the bank’s estimates. If the “construction jihad” estimates are the most accurate, then the size of the damage becomes much larger, and it affects about 21% of the residential stock.

The report points out here that “this great difference in estimating residential damage needs an explanation.” He said: “Initially, it must be noted that the World Bank’s estimates of damage depended on analyzes of satellite images and observatories, while the information provided by the Jihad Al -Babyah Foundation is based on field previews, and therefore the variation in estimates appears between them. Building jihad information includes damage that the World Bank has not noticed, such as the damage that affected the housing units as a result of storms of explosions, fragments, shattering glass, removing windows and doors, and destroying furniture and equipment.

He continued: “There is no information about this type of slight damage to the overall damage that has caused residential stocks, but it can be speculated that it explains an important part of the contrast in estimates.”

Also, the “Jihad Al -Bunah” Foundation integrates, according to the report, the shops located within the residential buildings in calculating the affected residential units, but the impact of this element is limited, as the World Bank estimates that about 9,194 business institutions, whether they are inside or not. When adding this number to the bank’s estimates to the affected housing units (162,900 units), the total amounts to 172,094 affected units, and this number is still equal to only 49% of the construction jihad estimates.

What about the cost?

Although the World Bank estimates the number of affected housing units is much lower than the “construction jihad” estimates, its estimates of the value of the damage are higher, according to the report of the “Safar” platform.

For its part, the World Bank estimates the value of direct damage to the war at about 6.8 billion dollars, of which 4.6 billion dollars in the housing sector, or 67% of the overall damage.

The head of the Consultative Center for Studies and Documentation, Abdel Halim Fadlallah, explains that before the end of the war, the center estimated the cost of replacing direct material damage, including housing, with about $ 4.5 billion, and therefore the difference in cost estimates appears less than the difference in estimates of the number of affected housing units.

Fadlallah is not likely to have political motives behind the different estimates of the cost of reconstruction, as they do not vary much, contrary to what happened after the July 2006 war, but it indicates a tendency with the World Bank to exaggerate the estimation of the cost of management and studies in reconstruction projects, and estimate the damage to the infrastructure.

Likewise, Fadlallah says that concentrated estimates of the cost of reconstruction and recovery after the war requires between 7 billion and 7.5 billion dollars, while the World Bank is estimated at about 11 billion dollars. (Zero platform)