Hezbollah and the President .. A useful interruption

In light of the increasing regional and international pressures on Lebanon, the position of the President of the Republic, General Joseph Aoun, emerged as an important indication of the path that the country might take in the coming months. These pressures, which are mainly targeting Hezbollah and its weapons, were not met by the presidency of the Republic with convulsive or escalating positions, but rather with political behavior balanced by the head of state, which indicates a desire to contain the crisis instead of its bombing.

The president, although not originally the choice of “the Shiite duo, expressed from the moment of his election a different approach, based on the balance between the requirements of the outside and the accounts of the interior. On the one hand, he does not deny the right of the international community to demand the inventory of arms in the hands of the state, but rather adopts this demand as a reformist address, and works to provide an official speech in harmony with these calls, betting on restoring international confidence in Lebanon. He threatens the civil peace, and instead calls for dialogue and openness, realizing that the open confrontation with Hezbollah means going towards the unknown.

What is clearly observed is that this mode is comfortable with Haret Harik, which faces an unprecedented external storm, and is looking for a political umbrella that relieves pressure and gives it a margin of maneuver in a very complex moment. On the other hand, the president receives implicit support from Hezbollah in a way that enhances its internal location and devotes its role as a guarantor of fragile balances.

This intersection in interest does not mean a strategic alliance in the traditional sense, but rather is closer to circumstantial understanding, which allows each party to achieve part of its goals without significant losses. This makes the Lebanese political scene more blurry, but at the same time it is less susceptible to immediate explosion.

The president’s management of the relationship with the international community, and his ability to address Western capitals in the language of institutions, enhances his image as a state man who improves the reading of the political moment, knows the limits of influence and the limits of engagement. It thus keeps the door open to major settlements that may redraw strength equations in Lebanon and the region, without paying the country a heavy price in security or stability.

Lebanon today is in a articulated moment, and what the President of the Republic does is an attempt to win the time and contain the crisis, pending the fact that the major settlements will mature. This option may not be sufficient to solve the crisis, but at least gives the country an opportunity to avoid the worst.