America and Iran .. The hour of difficult decisions rang

Elias Farhat wrote in “Major General”:

On Saturday, April 12, 2025, American -Iranian talks began in Muscat, the capital of the Sultanate of Oman, after more than four decades of hostility, which was included in a “warrior break” between 2015, the date of signing the nuclear agreement known as the “joint comprehensive action plan” and 2018, the date of the withdrawal of Donald Trump from this agreement and the restoration of sanctions on Iran.

The world’s attention is diagnosed with the results of the upcoming rounds between Iran and the United States, in light of the mutual keenness to spread a positive atmosphere for the first indirect meeting that ended with a “endowment” meeting between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqji and the American presidential envoy Steve Witakv in the presence of the Foreign Minister of the Sultanate of Oman Badr Al -Busaidi. It depends on the results of these talks, either the conclusion of a settlement between the two teams, which reflects positively on the Middle East region, removes the climate of wars, or the occurrence of an armed clash in which many parties are involved in which the atmosphere of the war in the region is renewed for an unsuccessful period.

The views of the two teams:

A- The American and Israel team: This team can be gathered or fragmented, even if it is unanimous that Iran is in a weak situation after Israel struck its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon and killed its martyr Secretary-General Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, the Lebanese, Arab and Islamic Charismans and a number of party leaders, as it destroyed a large part of the party’s capabilities of “70 %”, according to some Israeli leaders. Israel also put a major blow to Hamas in Gaza, killing its head of political office, Ismail Haniyeh, in the heart of Tehran, and his successor, Yahya Al -Sinwar, in Gaza, and more than fifty thousand, wounded about two hundred thousand and occupied the entire sector, and made him an unprecedented area. On the other hand, after a series of Israeli strikes for Yemen, especially the port of Hodeidah, the US President ordered the direct missile strikes to Yemen that included most of the northern governorates and led to the destruction of vital facilities and human and material losses. The excuse of the United States was to force the northern Yemeni leadership to secure what it called “freedom of navigation” in Bab al -Mandab after the Yemeni leadership in Sanaa announced the prevention of Israeli, American and British ships from crossing the Bab al -Mandab, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

B- Iran’s team:

This team believes that Iran’s situation is still strong and that it still maintains its strength despite the Israeli bombing that targeted its vital air defenses. She has repeatedly announced that it has sound missile systems and recently a missile system against ships and dozens of missile hideouts throughout Iran, and it still maintains an Iranian -made air defense network of Khorfad. This team believes that Israel managed to assassinate Sayyid Nasrallah, but it failed after a 66 -day war that was pushed by a land attack from entering and occupying the South Litani area. Hezbollah also continued to bomb Tel Aviv until November 24, that is, three days before the ceasefire. And if Hezbollah lost, at the estimation of Israel, 70 % of its capabilities, this means that it maintains about 45,000 missiles if we assume that it had 150,000 missiles before the war, according to Israeli and Western testimonies. As for Hamas, it is true that it had received a strong blow and killed a large part of its leaders, but it still maintains an underground military ability and is still hiding about fifty prisoners in places that Israel and the intelligence of its allies are unable to reveal and the prisoners ’paper is still strong and active inside the Israeli. As for Yemen, it is true that he was subjected to an Israeli and destroyed Israeli air strike, but he remained able to stop navigation in the Red Sea, the Bab al -Mandab, and the Gulf of Aden, and the Israelis and the Americans were unable to provide what they called “freedom of navigation” in that region.

General result for balance:

Iran considers that it and its axis lost in the recent war leaders and lands in Gaza and a state in Syria and the destruction of facilities in Yemen … and leaders and a deterrent balance in Lebanon, but it was not defeated. It also considers that the United States, Israel and their allies were profitable in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, but they did not win, and therefore, no enthusiasm, Hamas, Hezbollah, or Ansar Allah in Yemen, did not submit to attempts to dictate solutions in the version of the victor by Israel and the United States, even if it declared its willingness to negotiate. A meeting of a representative of the United States with a representative of Hamas in Qatar can be considered an American declaration that there was no full American -Israeli victory or a complete defeat for Iran and its allies.

Trump’s options: A- Trump returning to the White House, whose party controls the congressions, feels a power surplus to launch in his battle to adapt his main opponent China and for this purpose he started his trade war and raised customs tariffs while he is still in the labor of the Ukrainian-Russian war, and he tries to reach a settlement in the Middle East soon that does not exceed two months because his battle with China and with his European allies Asians require effort and time.

Possible military scenario:

A- The American-Israeli attack scenario:
It is frequented by an Israeli -Israeli air strike for military, nuclear and strategic facilities in Iran, and this requires moving more than 300 aircraft, including heavy bombers B2. This blow can cause destruction and damage, but the ambiguity remains surrounding the issue of Iran’s ability to respond to the American bases in the region and ships in the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea, as well as responding to Israel, and some allies of the United States, which are six countries that I had previously threatened in an official statement, the UAE, Iraq, Turkey, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, all of which harbor American bases that can participate in the mentioned strike. The problem of this scenario is that it may prolong the confrontation and lead to defeating tremors that undermine the stability of the region and the world.