The party is facing the storm !! The wounded tiger suffers from a crisis of confidence, breakthroughs and losses that threaten its future
The party is facing the storm !! The wounded tiger suffers from a crisis of confidence, intelligence, and losses that threaten its future
In a remarkable development that reveals the extent of the pressures that Hezbollah is exposed to, the Israeli Institute of “Alma” published.
It is a research center specializing in security and defense affairs,
An expanded report indicates that the party faces one of its most complex stages since its foundation.
The report that caught the attention of the Israeli and international media,
Hezbollah placed in the form of the wounded tiger, which is still able to move,
But he is internally suffering from continuous bleeding that may lead to radical changes in his structure and performance.
The crisis of trust within the ranks of Hezbollah, the wounded tiger
One of the most prominent thing in the report is the existence of a worsening confidence crisis within the party,
Especially between leadership levels and field elements.
This crisis was exacerbated after the qualitative strikes that targeted prominent leaders in the party,
This prompted many elements to doubts about the existence of internal intelligence breakthroughs.
The party members, according to the report, are feeling that their organization is no longer as precedent,
And that Israel was able to penetrate its security networks accurately.
These doubts negatively affect field coordination and operational decisions,
This may lead to further dispersion and poor discipline in the field.
Heavy losses in leaders and infrastructure
The report also touched on the heavy field losses incurred by the party.
According to the “Alma” Institute, more than 15% of the party’s strength was destroyed or disabled,
A large number of his field leaders who were the nerve of military and intelligence operations were also eliminated.
Among the units that are severely affected:
- The “Radwan” unit: Which lost its capabilities to carry out offensive infiltration operations towards the Galilee, which represents a major blow in the depth of the party’s offensive doctrine.
- The units of “Al -Nasr” and “Aziz”: Those who received accurate and focused strikes, reduced their combat competence in southern Lebanon.
Destruction of underground infrastructure in southern Lebanon, which was used for smuggling, storage and hiding,
It is a qualitative development in the confrontation. However, some underground facilities are still in the regions of northern Litani and inside the Bekaa Valley, indicating the continued ability of the party to withstand some areas.
Iranian intervention to rehabilitate the wounded tiger
Despite these losses, Iran, according to the report, is still committed to the support of Hezbollah financially and logistically. This support includes:
- Smuggling modern weapons across the Syrian border.
- Send cash and go to finance party operations.
- Helping to create self -production lines for weapons and ammunition.
- Providing intelligence support to confront Israeli breaches.
The report indicates that this Iranian support is part of a broader strategy through which Tehran seeks to preserve its regional influence through its allies, especially “Hezbollah” in Lebanon.
Internal pressures in Lebanon
Internally, the party faces increasing challenges on the Lebanese scene.
The report indicated that the existence of a “political bullying” escalated by Lebanese parties that have publicly demanded a reconsideration of the party’s weapon and his military role outside the state authority.
Also, the Lebanese army has become more active recently in some sensitive areas, in parallel with the rise of new political forces seeking to break the party’s monopoly of the security decision in the south and Bekaa.
With the deterioration of the economic situation in Lebanon, the party finds itself in a critical position in front of its fans. Many of his incubator environment now complains about bad living conditions, and she wonders about the feasibility of the party’s continued fighting in external or internal battles that does not serve the interest of the Lebanese citizen.
Israel: In the event of antiquity and motivation
The report stated that the Israeli military and political leadership views the current situation of the party as a “historic opportunity” to weaken it more and more.
It is estimated that there is a race against time between the party’s ability to rebuild itself, and the continuation of military and intelligence operations aimed at paralyzing its movement.
Although Israel continues its cautious policy, it sets the option to expand military operations on the table, especially if it monitors clear indications of the party’s recovery or its willingness to carry out offensive operations.
Hezbollah’s future: Is there a scenario for dismantling?
At the end of the report, the “Alma” institute confirms that the disarmament of the party is no longer just a dream, but rather turned into a realistic possibility, but on the condition that the political will is available from the Lebanese and Israeli sides.
According to the report, the ideological doctrine of the party – based on the so -called “armed resistance” – is still firm, which means that any shift in this direction requires strong external pressure, deep Lebanese internal understandings, and a rebuilding of confidence between the political components.
Although the party appears to be a relative weakness, its severity remains.
The report indicated that the party, such as the “wounded tiger”, may act in an unexpected manner if he feels completely trapped, and may resort to an internal or external escalation to change the balance of power.
What the “Alma” report revealed indicates that “Hezbollah” stands at a crucial crossroads,
Between staying as a dominant force in Lebanon, or entering into a sterile path that may be lost by a lot of influence and influence.
In light of everything that is going on, the most important question arises: Can the party be able to withstand and restore positioning, or will the local and regional variables impose on it the shift from the “wounded tiger” to an entity unable to restore its previous strength?
The next stage is enough to answer, but it is certain that “Hezbollah” is no longer today as it was years ago, and that Lebanon, and with it the region, is on a date with major changes that may redraw the map of power.
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