A final opportunity before a comprehensive collapse?
One last opportunity before a comprehensive collapse
In the midst of the deep political and economic crisis that ravages Lebanon, indicators are increasing that the “last opportunity” that the international community gives.
Especially the United States of America, for Lebanon, has become seriously threatened by internal stalling and wasting time in secondary files that do not affect the essence of the crisis.
American “conditional flexibility” policy: conditional support, not open
Since the beginning of the Lebanese collapse, the United States has adopted a flexible approach towards Beirut,
It combined political and diplomatic pressure with the understanding of some Lebanese complications,
Especially regarding the “Hezbollah” weapon file, which is one of the most complex issues in Lebanon The most related to regional and international balances.
However, according to the Legal Adviser in the European Union, Dr. Mohieldin Al -Shehimi, this American “flexibility” is not absolute, but rather conditional on the behavior of the Lebanese state.
Washington, according to Al -Shehimi, is still dealing with Lebanon as a country that must regain its full sovereignty,
And to apply its constitution and adhere to international resolutions, led by Resolution 1701, which expressly provides for the restriction of arms in the hands of the state.
An international community is ready … but on conditions
Al -Shehimi and a number of experts collect that the international community, including the Arab and Gulf countries,
He awaits clear and real signs from the Lebanese interior,
The state’s seriousness in the trend towards restoring the sovereign decision, and putting an end to the state of the “permanent exception” that Lebanon has been experiencing for years under the pretext of “Lebanese privacy”.
Al -Shuhaimi stresses that this privacy is no longer enough an excuse for not respecting sovereignty and applying the law.
He says: “The United States, and with it the European Union, does not want Lebanon to drown in chaos,
But it will not continue forever to provide support without actual steps, starting from the Lebanese interior itself.
Three stages of articulated: local, Arab and international
According to Al -Shehimi, the international support path for Lebanon passes through three interconnected stages:
- Local stageWhere the Lebanese state must, first, to show a solid political will to make radical reforms in the judiciary, administration and institutions, including fighting corruption and achieving transparency and accountability, specifically in the electricity and banking files, which constitute the most prominent aspects of structural failure in the state.
- Arab stage: As Lebanon cannot obtain international support without clear Arab position in the state’s ranks, not chaos and weapons that are escaping. Arab support, especially the Gulf, remains a prerequisite for restoring confidence in Lebanon as a safe investment location.
- International stage: It is the final stage, and only when the Lebanese government shows concrete reform signals, which opens the door for the International Monetary Fund and the donor countries to start support programs.
Between sovereignty and weapons, a last opportunity before the comprehensive collapse
It is no secret that the essence of all these stages lies in the issue of illegal weapons, specifically the weapon of Hezbollah.
According to Al -Shehimi’s analysis, this weapon, which was used under slogans ranging from “resistance to Israel” and “support for the Syrian regime”.
It is the main obstacle to building a state of law and institutions.
He adds: “It is not possible to build a state in which sovereignty is permitted from the inside.
Whether for external purposes or to protect the influence of a group at the expense of another.
He continued: “This weapon did not reinforce the location of the Shiite community as it is promoted,
Rather, he contributed to marginalizing the inclusive national decision, and kidnapping the state towards axes that most Lebanese do not want.
Judicial reform is the economic rescue key
Regarding the financial rescue plan, Al -Shehimi believes that any talk about external support cannot be separated from structural reform in the judiciary.
Confidence is missing in institutions, and the foreign or expatriate investor will not put his money in an environment in which judicial security is absent.
He confirms: “We need clear reform laws, independent judiciary, and new laws that encourage investment,
The corrupt person does not escape punishment. ”He stresses that the economic crisis is not only financial,
Rather, it is a direct result of lack of confidence in the country.
Time runs out … and “political waste” is the biggest dangers, a last opportunity before the comprehensive collapse
In the summary of his words, Al -Shehimi warns that the time available to Lebanon is no longer long,
And that what threatens flexible American interaction not only the “Iranian veto” or interior conflicts.
It also “wasting time in side files”, and the lack of decisive political decision.
He adds: “Lebanon has a rare opportunity, it will not be repeated much. It is required to move immediately to prove the seriousness in front of the international community,
And not waiting for regional settlements that will not come easily. ”
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