Israel calls in the reserves… Is Lebanon on the brink of a full-blown explosion?
Israel calls in the reserves … is Lebanon on the brink of a full-blown explosion? Lebanon On the brink of a full-blown explosion?
Amid escalating regional tensions, Lebanon has returned to the forefront of the security scene after the Wall Street Journal revealed that the Lebanese state has made unexpected progress in disarming Hezbollah.
This progress, which “surprised” US and Israeli officials, according to the newspaper, coincided with dangerous field indicators on the northern front with occupied Palestine.
Israel called up hundreds of thousands of reservists in an extraordinary move that recalled the atmosphere before the major wars.
What does Lebanon have to do with Israel’s call-up? Are we facing an imminent confrontation, or will political pressure bear fruit before it’s too late?
The Lebanese army and Hezbollah’s disarmament: Field progress or political tactics?
In an unprecedented development, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam told the Wall Street Journal that his government has “achieved 80 percent of its goals in disarming Hezbollah.”
He emphasized that the state’s goal is not to drag the country into a civil war, but to reach a solution within the institutions.
The statement, which comes at a delicate stage of security tensions, has revived the internal debate about the extent to which the Lebanese state is actually capable of implementing UN Resolution 1701.
At a time when the southern border remains subject to daily violations by Israel and Hezbollah shows no real signs of being willing to give up its military arsenal.
The return of the American stick! Morgan Ortagus is in Beirut again And Israel calls in the reserves…
Within days of these statements, there were reports of the upcoming return of US Special Envoy Morgan Ortagus to Beirut.
after a series of meetings she had previously held with Lebanese officials on the implementation of Resolution 1701.
Washington has expressed its “dissatisfaction” with the Lebanese government’s slow pace in disarming Hezbollah.
and warned that the “golden opportunity” offered to Lebanon after the recent ceasefire may not last long.
The U.S. administration appears to be pushing to accelerate the process through diplomatic pressure.
But the most prominent question is: Can this file really be resolved politically in light of Hezbollah’s stated rejection of any discussion that affects its resistance?
President Joseph Aoun offers a dialog between realism and challenge
In a move described as pragmatic, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun tried to offer “dialogue” as an alternative to confrontation.
proposing a direct discussion with Hezbollah about the future of its weapons within the Lebanese state.
The proposal, while rational, does not negate the fact that Hezbollah continues to hold onto its weapons as “part of its defense doctrine.”
in the words of its leaders, at a time when its opponents believe that this weapon has become a burden on the state and a reason for international isolation.
Between those who call for disarmament through negotiation and those who offer force as a last option, the specter of the coming confrontation lurks on the southern front.
Israel calls up the reserves, 450,000 soldiers! What does this mean for Lebanon?
The most dangerous move came from Israel, which, according to security information, called up about 450,000 reservists.
This is not a step to be taken lightly in military calculations.
Retired Brigadier General George Nader emphasized in a statement to MTV that this recall “is not to move the front with Jordan or Egypt, not even for Syria, where Israel is active as it pleases.
It is a clear preparation for a possible invasion of Lebanon, and the goal is to disarm Hezbollah by force.”
Nader noted that there are only two scenarios:
- Either an internal agreement is reached between the state and Hezbollah, leading to a gradual handover of weapons.
- Or the Lebanese army is tasked with carrying out the mission by force, which could spark a civil war or trigger a major regional clash.
Nader added: “If Hezbollah is not convinced by the Lebanese option, the Israeli bloody scenario is ready, and implementation may be only a matter of time.”
Southern and Bekaa raids, fiery messages in preparation for confrontation?
Just days ago, Israel launched heavy raids on locations in the south and the Bekaa Valley, in an escalation not seen since the November 27 ceasefire agreement.
This escalation, according to observers, is a clear message that Israel is not counting on mediation and that the “deadline” for internal disarmament is about to expire.
It is feared that these strikes could be a prelude to a larger military operation if diplomatic efforts fail.
Israel calls up reserves WaDanger is approaching… what if the situation explodes?
The concerns are not limited to the political aspect, but also include huge security and humanitarian repercussions.
Any new war on Lebanon would devastate the already overstretched infrastructure, exacerbate the economic and financial crisis, and threaten a complete collapse of the health and food sector.
The prospect of escalation would not only mean a direct clash with Hezbollah, but could drag the country into external interventions and a wider regional conflict that no one is able to contain.
Between dialogue and explosion … who will save Lebanon?
Lebanon Today stands at a fateful crossroads.
Either the internal dialogue between the state and Hezbollah will continue to reach a formula that guarantees unity of decision and weapons under the umbrella of legitimacy, or the southern front will explode again, plunging Lebanon into a devastating war that no one knows how it will end.
Amid Israeli mobilization, US warnings, and internal division, Lebanon’s fate remains hanging by a thread… Will the wise men act before it is too late?
The post Israel calls in the reserves … Is Lebanon on the brink of a full-scale explosion? appeared first on 961 Today Lebanon Today.
