Hezbollah has no allies, and openness to its opponents is essential

It is clear that Hezbollah, if the battle continues within its current form and ceilings, will emerge largely intact, as a military and organizational structure, and will be able to absorb the developments that will occur in the region, specifically if Israel imposes new, completely different equations in the Gaza Strip, but will It is enough for the party to maintain its military and organizational reality to be able to impose its equations within any new political settlement.

Inside Lebanon, “Hezbollah” is noticeably suffering from a decline in the level of its political alliances. Today, the party no longer has any significant ally in Lebanon except the Amal Movement, as the “Free Patriotic Movement,” the most prominent Christian ally of Haret Hreik, has today become its real opponent, and opposes it on issues. Strategy and Interior: Former President Michel Aoun announced a complete divorce in his last television appearance. This means that the party, although it was less in need of Christian cover, had lost a great deal of social depth at home.

If the party’s reality in other environments, specifically Druze and Sunni, is better than it was in previous years, then this transformation brought about by former MP Walid Jumblatt is not a profound transformation, but rather a mere disengagement and avoiding going to a political battle at the moment of outbreak of war on more than one regional arena. The same applies to the Sunni arena, which intersected with “Hezbollah” due to the battle in the Gaza Strip, but it is not certain that it will remain at this intersection in the coming stages.

Informed sources believe that the party, even if it achieves a real military victory, cannot continue in internal political life without actual and effective alliances, because it will then be repeating previous Lebanese experiences that have proven to be unsuccessful and will inevitably lead to a major political or even military clash that pushes the country towards a major collision, to no one. He wants to reach it, and hence it has become urgent for the party to reach a practical conviction of the necessity of opening up to its traditional opponents or even to new representatives with different proposals.

The settlement may open a door for Hezbollah to reshape its alliances, but if it enters negotiations without any real national alliance, its position will be weaker and it will not be able to impose its political conditions, specifically those related to internal reality and reconstruct the political system in a way that serves to increase the party’s presence in it. Therefore, The next stage will constitute a real challenge for Haret Hreik in order to reconnect what was broken off with the allies and arrange a new alliance path with the opponents.

Source:
Special “Lebanon 24”