Biden is running out of time in the Middle East
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According to the newspaper, “Jake Sullivan, the National Security Advisor in the White House, is visiting Saudi Arabia this week to meet with Bin Salman in a final attempt to save Biden’s grand plan for peace in the Middle East. In fact, it is unlikely to succeed, but the manner of failure could determine how the next stages of the war between Israel, Iran, and its regional proxies play out. The features of the Biden administration’s plans are well known: Israel agrees to a timetable for a ceasefire in Gaza and allows the Palestinian Authority to take control of the devastated Strip, and also commits to conducting serious negotiations regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank. As for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, it is to “normalize” its informal relationship with Israel and sign a strategic cooperation agreement with the United States, giving it unprecedented access to American weapons and even the civilian nuclear program.
The newspaper continued, “For Biden, this will be the culmination of his foreign policy achievements, not only of his presidency, but also of his long public career: ending the war in Gaza, resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and creating a security partnership friendly to the United States in the Middle East, led by its two main allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia.” To confront Iran. But there are many obstacles to achieving his vision. Indeed, Israel’s goal of destroying Hamas’s military capabilities in Gaza remains elusive six months later, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ruled out any role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza once Hamas is defeated, and it is by no means clear that it can be “revitalized.” “Power under the uncompromising rule of 88-year-old President Mahmoud Abbas. A new government was formed this week in Ramallah headed by new Prime Minister Muhammad Mustafa, but the 69-year-old American-educated economist is not a new face who will challenge the obstacles.
The newspaper added, “While the Saudis are interested in a strategic alliance with the United States, and may, along with the Emiratis, be willing to foot the bill for rebuilding the ruins of Gaza, which the World Bank estimates will cost at least $18 billion, it remains to be seen the extent of their determination.” To confront Iran, whose leaders will do everything in their power to obstruct the American plan. On Monday, an Israeli airstrike destroyed the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers, including General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, commander of the Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon. Zahedi was also the senior representative of Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy, which has been waging a low-intensity war with Israel since the Hamas attack.
According to the newspaper, “The strike was a reminder that Israel is fighting at least two wars simultaneously. Although the war in Gaza aims to end Hamas’ rule there, Israeli goals in the north remain undefined. Hezbollah is a much larger force, and although the Israeli army is more powerful, an all-out war with Hezbollah would lead to severe damage to Israeli cities due to thousands of missiles supplied by Iran. Hezbollah is expected to lose its dominance in such a war as well, and for this reason Israel took a calculated risk by targeting the party’s Iranian sponsors on Syrian territory, which led to conveying a message that Israel is determined to limit the party’s influence on its borders.”
The newspaper continued, “The security and political institutions in Israel are divided over Biden’s plan. Netanyahu has not hidden his desire to reach an agreement with the richest and most influential Arab country, but at present he refuses to pay the price that the Saudis are asking for: a role for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and negotiations towards a two-state solution. This is not only because of his personal resistance to any concessions, but also because his partners in The far-right coalition will topple his government if he agrees. The practical wing of the emergency coalition, namely Ministers Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, who joined the war government when the conflict began, are more open to the idea, although they have not announced it publicly yet, and they are supported by many heads of the security services as well. One of the generals says: “Israel has an opportunity to emerge from this war with a new regional framework in which the major Arab regimes join against Iran. “But this will not happen if politicians miss the opportunity.”
According to the newspaper, “Biden is moving forward despite knowing that the chances are slim at the present time.” He wants to show his troubled Democratic Party, which has been increasingly critical of its support for Israel, that he is trying to end the war. If bin Salman gives the green light, Biden may present the plan publicly, leaving Netanyahu with the choice of either rejecting or accepting, although this is unlikely, as a last resort to save his tarnished legacy at the expense of his coalition. But above all, Biden is trying again because he believes in his plan, just as he believes he will defeat Donald Trump in November and secure a second term. By then, Israel will have been at war for more than a year, and many expect that Netanyahu will be unable to prevent early elections, which he will almost certainly lose.”
The newspaper concluded, “The only thing that Biden knows for sure is that at this time next year, Bin Salman, who will not have to run in elections, will still be in charge of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, so he is trying to win him over.”
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